Research Based

Wave Analysis

This blog post was written by Barbara (Babs) Weber, ABSI Connect’s interim facilitator. Read more about Babs’ story here.


Social innovation isn’t a new concept to me. It probably isn’t a new concept to you either since you’re reading the ABSI Connect blog, but I often come across something that changes the way I look at the world of social innovation and the work we’re doing. For example, while researching cheesy synonyms for various words related to changemaking (for an upcoming ABSI event, watch this space) I noticed a strange list of quotes on the dictionary page for innovation.

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They stood out in two ways: first, they were unsourced. That’s kind of strange given how easy it is to attribute quotes. Together they almost read like someone fed 40,000 books with expired copyright through a bot and asked it to write beatnik poetry on the topic of innovation. That’s actually probably quite close to the truth. I copied a couple of lines and put them into google, only to have them come up from very old, digitized books. (If anyone decides to write a bot to make poetry using the archives on gutenberg.org and turn it into an Instagram account – please credit ABSI and dictionary.com for the inspiration.)

The second reason they stand out is their tone. Roughly half of the quotes seem to be at least partially negative, if not downright hostile towards the idea of innovation. I found this somewhat surprising. We know not all innovation is the right solution. No one is a fan of change for the sake of change – but half the quotes, given a random sample, show a negative attitude towards the very concept of innovation. Either this bot is better at finding a ‘balance’ of opinions than it is at writing good (bad?) poetry, or there are a lot of people who resist innovation for resistance’s sake. This leads me to a technique that’s important for any changemaker  to keep in their back pocket: wave analysis.

 

Wave analysis is a quick-to-explain, relatively simple way to look at a snapshot of an issue at the current point in time. We can use the different parts of a wave as a metaphor to explore trends. I’ve seen it sourced to  Larry Philbrook, of ICA Associates, who has some suggestions on how to set up and use the technique with a large group.

 

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Waves form because of the forces acting on water (for example, gravitational pull, friction from wind passing over the surface, or really fast-moving objects causing a wake). These forces move water in a systematic way. We can use this metaphor to help us tease apart and analyse the components of a trend, before doing more planning, or to illustrate the way change is affecting people, projects and systems.

Emerging:
Where the wave begins to emerge, there’s some early energy or work that – for someone wanting to be on the cutting edge, or comfortable with fast learning curves – someone can sink their teeth into.

Swell:
These are the ‘rising stars’ of the issue you’re exploring. You’re seeing growing momentum and positive results – this is something that’s worth making sure it scales. If we were analyzing social media to invest time and effort into, and you had a mission to connect with youth – this might be Tik Tok.

Crest:  
These are areas providing best results, but there isn’t much more room to grow. They’re overwhelmingly popular, but they’ve really been done. If this system was a TV show, the crest might be right before that episode of Happy Days where Fonzie jumped the shark. There’s still some good left, but it’s time to find the next swell.

Trough:
This is the space where although things are not working well, there isn’t a lot of clarity about where to go next. On the bright side, with the metaphor of waves – this is where the next emerging wave will build from. (and there will be a next wave. Promise.)

Undertow:
The undertow is the areas of resistance, and why the beatnik bot poetry made me think of this technique. Undertow is the part beneath the surface where there is a need for caution, even when we’ve got a very successful piece together. Sometimes people have a very solid reason for resisting, and it’s important to be aware of what those reasons are. For example, someone who is hesitant to get news about local events from Facebook or Instagram could be (understandably) worried about their privacy. Sometimes this resistance just comes for the sake of resistance, inertia, fear, or a lack of ‘need’ for changing the status quo. Regardless of the reason why someone is resisting, it’s important to understand what’s causing the undertow. Addressing that tension can bring up some really important discussions. Sometimes that underlying undertow will be an inspiration for new innovations, and sometimes, this undertow is the thing that makes the whole project come crashing down at the crest.

After laying out your wave, giving all participants a chance to add their own cards or points to the different points of the metaphor, we can use it to build discussion. What does your wave tell you about the world we’re living in? What trends do you see? How might we respond? What is our role in adjusting the wave? And how might we engage with the undertow that drives our system?


ABSI Connect’s blog features examples, learnings, and reflections related to social innovation, human-centred design, and systems change in Alberta. Do you have a story, idea, or insight you’d like to share with the ABSI Connect community? Let us know.